BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

European Starling in Tamaulipan Brushlands has surged: up 36× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

36×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has surged in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 36× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

European Starling In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 7.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 3.8–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 7.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 3.8–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.83.412
20277.93.512
20288.03.612
20298.13.713
20308.23.813

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording European Starling in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KingsvilleTEXAS792024
George WestTEXAS202025
DilleyTEXAS182025
ProgresoTEXAS182011
LaredoTEXAS162023
HondoTEXAS152025
Encinal 2TEXAS112025
EncinalTEXAS92010
RandadoTEXAS72025
La PryorTEXAS52017
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS52013
RaymondvilleTEXAS42025
Millett 2TEXAS32024
RachalTEXAS22023
ZapataTEXAS21987
CatarinaTEXAS22007
El IndioTEXAS22001
Catarina 3TEXAS22024
Pedro CreekTEXAS22010
Agua NuevaTEXAS12019
Mirando CityTEXAS12025
San YgnacioTEXAS11985
El SauzTEXAS12010
GuerraTEXAS12025
SejitaTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.