BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

European Starling in Tamaulipan Brushlands has surged: up 36× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

36×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has surged in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 36× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 3.7–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 3.7–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.73.312
20267.93.412
20278.03.512
20288.13.613
20298.23.713

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording European Starling in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KingsvilleTEXAS792024
ProgresoTEXAS182011
George WestTEXAS162024
HondoTEXAS162024
LaredoTEXAS162023
DilleyTEXAS142024
GuerraTEXAS122018
RandadoTEXAS102024
EncinalTEXAS92010
La PryorTEXAS52017
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS52013
Millett 2TEXAS32024
RachalTEXAS22023
ZapataTEXAS21987
CatarinaTEXAS22007
El IndioTEXAS22001
RaymondvilleTEXAS22024
Catarina 3TEXAS22024
Pedro CreekTEXAS22010
Agua NuevaTEXAS12019
Mirando CityTEXAS12024
San YgnacioTEXAS11985
El SauzTEXAS12010
Encinal 2TEXAS12024
SejitaTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.