BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

European Starling in Chihuahuan Desert has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-20%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 164% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±713.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+164%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±713.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 164% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±713.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.990.002.1
20260.990.002.1
20270.990.002.1
20281.000.002.2
20291.00.002.2

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording European Starling in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO72022
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO72024
MesillaNEW-MEXICO62000
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO31977
Red RockNEW-MEXICO32018
OzonaTEXAS32003
CanutilloTEXAS32024
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO21999
GageNEW-MEXICO22022
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO22019
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO21994
SlaughterTEXAS22006
MarfaTEXAS22019
RoswellNEW-MEXICO12005
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12022
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12017
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12015
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO12008
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO12015
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO12006
ComstockTEXAS12021
CornudasTEXAS11993
GirvinTEXAS12015
Devils R CynTEXAS12013
Ft. StocktonTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.