BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

European Starling in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-47%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

European Starling In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 60% by 2030 — from 0.61 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±777.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.97Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±777.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 60% by 2030 — from 0.61 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±777.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.960.002.1
20270.960.002.1
20280.970.002.1
20290.970.002.1
20300.970.002.1

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording European Starling in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GirvinTEXAS112025
MesillaNEW-MEXICO62000
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO52025
CanutilloTEXAS42025
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO31977
OzonaTEXAS32003
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO21999
GageNEW-MEXICO22022
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO22019
Red RockNEW-MEXICO22025
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO21994
SlaughterTEXAS22006
MarfaTEXAS22019
RoswellNEW-MEXICO12005
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12022
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12017
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12015
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO12024
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO12008
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO12015
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO12006
ComstockTEXAS12021
CornudasTEXAS11993
Devils R CynTEXAS12013
Ft. StocktonTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.