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Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

European Starling in Sierra Madre Occidental has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-85%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has collapsed in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±105%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.003.5
20260.000.003.5
20270.000.003.5
20280.000.003.5
20290.000.003.5

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording European Starling in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skull ValleyARIZONA102024
MaineARIZONA61997
WilliamsARIZONA52013
Mormon LakeARIZONA31974
CutterARIZONA32014
RedingtonARIZONA31996
PrescottARIZONA22009
BlueARIZONA21987
SunizonaARIZONA21996
Bartlett ResARIZONA22024
AlpineARIZONA22015
AmadoARIZONA22012
PortalARIZONA21993
Sunizona 2ARIZONA22005
RuckerARIZONA21998
PomereneARIZONA12005
PatagoniaARIZONA12015
PinetopARIZONA12021
SahuaritaARIZONA12019
McnealARIZONA12006
Happy JackARIZONA11996
Clay SpringARIZONA12021
Carr MtnARIZONA12019
SprucedaleARIZONA12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.