BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

European Starling in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+14%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 8.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 8.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.10.0015
20266.00.0014
20275.80.0014
20285.70.0014
20295.50.0014

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording European Starling in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA1042024
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA812010
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA742018
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA602024
BrawleyCALIFORNIA502010
Willow SpgsCALIFORNIA311981
Lone PineCALIFORNIA262024
ArabyARIZONA232023
BarstowCALIFORNIA231998
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA182024
NilandCALIFORNIA182024
FlorenceARIZONA141988
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA122000
WickenburgARIZONA112023
Calif CityCALIFORNIA112015
Cactus ForestARIZONA102024
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA102005
TronaCALIFORNIA101997
Cibola LakeARIZONA92021
OnyxCALIFORNIA92015
DarwinCALIFORNIA92005
BeattyNEVADA92017
Palo VerdeARIZONA82013
Hope 2ARIZONA82019
LenwoodCALIFORNIA82012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.