BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

European Starling in Coastal California has increased: up 36% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+36%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Coastal California is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 47 (95% range 25–69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
25–6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Coastal California is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 47 (95% range 25–69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025472669
2026472669
2027472669
2028472669
2029472569

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording European Starling in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OrovilleCALIFORNIA7502024
AthloneCALIFORNIA2812007
OrlandCALIFORNIA2622022
ParkfieldCALIFORNIA2412024
HollisterCALIFORNIA1812011
LivermoreCALIFORNIA1741991
GravesboroCALIFORNIA1671995
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA1532024
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA1312024
CordovaCALIFORNIA1291981
WestleyCALIFORNIA1282024
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA1252011
Collegeville 2CALIFORNIA1042023
MorenoCALIFORNIA1022024
Red BluffCALIFORNIA952024
Santa Cruz ICALIFORNIA951988
RiovistaCALIFORNIA942024
South LakeCALIFORNIA932006
LockwoodCALIFORNIA892024
HughsonCALIFORNIA832024
TiptonCALIFORNIA821997
AtwaterCALIFORNIA812012
Tracy 2CALIFORNIA772024
Hollister 2CALIFORNIA752024
AuburnCALIFORNIA681980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.