BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

European Starling in Peninsular Florida has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-28%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±101.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.00.0014
20265.90.0014
20275.80.0014
20285.70.0014
20295.60.0014

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording European Starling in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawano 2FLORIDA2312011
KendallFLORIDA1261991
Boca RatonFLORIDA1101994
Dale MabryFLORIDA1091988
RedlandsFLORIDA722024
BrowardFLORIDA681973
Sunniland GrFLORIDA582021
DavieFLORIDA272017
Plantation KFLORIDA212004
Pleasant GrFLORIDA182009
GardnerFLORIDA141999
AndytownFLORIDA121998
Ridge HarborFLORIDA102024
Devils GardnFLORIDA92024
ChildsFLORIDA82010
Citrus ParkFLORIDA82024
Mt. OliveFLORIDA82024
IndiantownFLORIDA72017
KissimmeeFLORIDA72021
Key WestFLORIDA71987
CroomFLORIDA72024
SalvistaFLORIDA61979
SandyFLORIDA62007
CrewsvilleFLORIDA62009
Vero BeachFLORIDA62022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.