BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

European Starling in Southeastern Coastal Plain has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
317Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 8.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.4–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 8.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025138.818
2026138.718
2027138.618
2028138.517
2029138.417

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording European Starling in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HumboldtTENNESSEE5772024
BeargrassNORTH-CAROLINA2031981
Olive BranchMISSISSIPPI1732001
JarvisburgNORTH-CAROLINA1631999
BackbayVIRGINIA1241974
Big SandyTENNESSEE1102024
Oak GroveFLORIDA962011
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA951991
LovelacevileKENTUCKY882024
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA822024
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA792011
CongletonNORTH-CAROLINA732024
ShilohKENTUCKY722023
Olive Branch 2MISSISSIPPI662022
SpeedNORTH-CAROLINA612024
MansfieldTENNESSEE582024
DortchesNORTH-CAROLINA562024
RowlandNORTH-CAROLINA512024
Old TrapNORTH-CAROLINA482024
California 2NORTH-CAROLINA472024
FairmontNORTH-CAROLINA461981
ArapahoeNORTH-CAROLINA441995
ErnulNORTH-CAROLINA432009
Jarvisburg 2NORTH-CAROLINA422022
MattamuskeetNORTH-CAROLINA412021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.