BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

European Starling in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 12–49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 12–49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025311349
2026311349
2027311349
2028311249
2029311249

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording European Starling in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HaytiMISSOURI9372021
WilsonARKANSAS2952024
CarlisleLOUISIANA2661988
BlodgettMISSOURI1472024
MaynardARKANSAS1112024
River RoadLOUISIANA1062024
LaroseLOUISIANA881992
BrousvilleLOUISIANA862024
Morgan CityLOUISIANA651986
SaffellARKANSAS522019
DellARKANSAS462024
MayflowerLOUISIANA462024
BardwellKENTUCKY422003
KraemerLOUISIANA412024
DundeeMISSISSIPPI412022
BerwickLOUISIANA392018
MoonMISSISSIPPI372021
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE342023
WhittonARKANSAS311991
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE312023
PawpawTENNESSEE312012
HarrisburgARKANSAS302019
KeystoneLOUISIANA302013
FrogmoreLOUISIANA282024
ShawLOUISIANA272024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.