BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

European Starling in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-71%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has fallen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.10.0014
20265.80.0014
20275.60.0013
20285.40.0013
20295.10.0013

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording European Starling in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PocolaOKLAHOMA2122016
NatchitochesLOUISIANA581991
Chandler 2TEXAS572024
Coal HillARKANSAS482023
Easton 2TEXAS422024
ChandlerTEXAS402004
MassardARKANSAS362022
MatoyOKLAHOMA292000
StarkARKANSAS272024
NatchezLOUISIANA252024
CypressLOUISIANA221987
McalesterOKLAHOMA211991
SmyrnaTEXAS212010
FishvilleLOUISIANA202017
HavanaARKANSAS192021
EastonLOUISIANA191990
PhillipsOKLAHOMA192008
Union HillTEXAS192024
CanadianOKLAHOMA182017
BlakelyARKANSAS171999
Mer RougeLOUISIANA172008
IndianolaOKLAHOMA162024
Liberty HillTEXAS162023
LinvilleLOUISIANA152013
LivingstonTEXAS152023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.