BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

European Starling in Prairie Hardwood Transition has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
160Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 62 in 2024 to a central estimate of 53 (95% range 32–74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
32–7495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 62 in 2024 to a central estimate of 53 (95% range 32–74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025573578
2026563477
2027553376
2028543375
2029533274

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording European Starling in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NapoleonOHIO4172024
BismarkOHIO3461995
VickeryOHIO2932024
HollandWISCONSIN2532024
MiddleburyINDIANA2372024
HoltMICHIGAN2182024
NashvilleMICHIGAN2132024
HamtramckMICHIGAN2071984
OmroWISCONSIN1962001
PackertownINDIANA1852004
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN1821987
ManitowocWISCONSIN1802024
JuniataMICHIGAN1602024
PardeevilleWISCONSIN1502024
StratfordWISCONSIN1472024
Packertown 2INDIANA1462024
Omro 2WISCONSIN1402024
GrimmsWISCONSIN1402021
GraytownOHIO1351984
South BendINDIANA1331991
LapeerMICHIGAN1312024
Pt WashingtnWISCONSIN1202024
Cherry ValILLINOIS1142003
N AndoverWISCONSIN1142024
KielWISCONSIN1142022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.