BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

European Starling in Prairie Hardwood Transition has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-38%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
160Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

European Starling In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 52 (95% range 30–73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 52 (95% range 30–73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026553476
2027543375
2028533275
2029533174
2030523073

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording European Starling in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BismarkOHIO3461995
VickeryOHIO2262025
NapoleonOHIO2242025
HamtramckMICHIGAN2071984
LockportOHIO1982025
OmroWISCONSIN1962001
PackertownINDIANA1852004
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN1821987
ManitowocWISCONSIN1802024
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN1782025
EdenWISCONSIN1632025
JuniataMICHIGAN1602024
BeloitWISCONSIN1582025
Packertown 2INDIANA1452025
GrimmsWISCONSIN1402021
Maple RapidsMICHIGAN1382025
GraytownOHIO1351984
South BendINDIANA1331991
Pt WashingtnWISCONSIN1202024
Hamburg 2MICHIGAN1152025
Cherry ValILLINOIS1142003
New TroyMICHIGAN1102024
LagrangeINDIANA1052025
PardeevilleWISCONSIN1042025
OlaMICHIGAN1022025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.