BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

European Starling in Oaks and Prairies has edged up: up 22% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+22%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 9.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 0.00–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 9.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 0.00–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025130.1327
2026130.0526
2027130.0026
2028130.0026
2029130.0026

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording European Starling in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RhomeTEXAS492024
BeggsOKLAHOMA472023
NobleOKLAHOMA432024
DallasTEXAS372024
WeatherfordTEXAS332024
ChoctawOKLAHOMA302023
CarlosTEXAS272024
CleburneTEXAS232024
Lone OakTEXAS222022
Massey LakeTEXAS212024
College StnTEXAS211990
HenriettaTEXAS202022
SadlerTEXAS172024
GreenvilleTEXAS172024
Miller GroveTEXAS162024
DuncanOKLAHOMA152023
OakwoodTEXAS151995
Wolfe CityTEXAS121987
Oak Grove 2TEXAS122023
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA112018
SkiatookOKLAHOMA112019
ThorntonTEXAS111984
WalburgTEXAS112024
DikeTEXAS102024
Wills PointTEXAS102016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.