BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

European Starling in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 409% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+409%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 409% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 22 (95% range 15–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 22 (95% range 15–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025211428
2026211428
2027211429
2028221429
2029221529

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording European Starling in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YoderWYOMING4862024
LingleWYOMING2672024
HudsonCOLORADO1912024
Arsenal 2COLORADO1182024
Murray LakeNEBRASKA1002024
JulesburgCOLORADO922021
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO691997
Agate 2NEBRASKA672024
GroverCOLORADO662024
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO632023
NunnCOLORADO622021
Fort MorganCOLORADO582024
DaltonNEBRASKA532024
Prospect ValCOLORADO442000
ArsenalCOLORADO442015
Wildhorse LCOLORADO392024
PritchettCOLORADO392024
FlemingCOLORADO332023
KiowaCOLORADO332018
Two ButtesCOLORADO332015
HookerOKLAHOMA282024
CheyenneWYOMING282024
ChanningTEXAS252018
DalhartTEXAS252024
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO232023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.