BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

European Starling in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 483% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+483%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 483% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

European Starling In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 22 (95% range 15–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 22 (95% range 15–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026211429
2027221429
2028221529
2029221529
2030221530

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording European Starling in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HudsonCOLORADO3202025
LingleWYOMING2672024
DalhartTEXAS1612025
YoderWYOMING1442025
BennettCOLORADO1172025
FlemingCOLORADO1022025
Murray LakeNEBRASKA1022025
JulesburgCOLORADO922021
Arsenal 2COLORADO882025
DaltonNEBRASKA832025
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO691997
GroverCOLORADO662024
FlaglerCOLORADO612025
Fort MorganCOLORADO562025
Prospect ValCOLORADO442000
ArsenalCOLORADO442015
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA432025
PritchettCOLORADO362025
LamesaTEXAS362025
KiowaCOLORADO332018
Agate 2NEBRASKA332025
HookerOKLAHOMA292025
CheyenneWYOMING282024
ChanningTEXAS252018
GilpinCOLORADO242025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.