BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

European Starling in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 973% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+973%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 973% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 11–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 11–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025179.824
2026171024
2027171024
2028181025
2029181125

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording European Starling in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ArvadaWYOMING4252024
DaytonWYOMING2552024
MayoworthWYOMING1462024
Two DotMONTANA1002024
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA942024
WinifredMONTANA922023
RiverviewWYOMING912022
RecluseWYOMING672022
RozetWYOMING632023
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA602004
NewcastleWYOMING552024
ShawneeWYOMING542024
Winifred 2MONTANA522024
UptonWYOMING522024
SussexWYOMING472024
Flatwillow 2MONTANA422023
IndianSOUTH-DAKOTA402024
RavenWYOMING402024
BrandenbergMONTANA392019
ForsythMONTANA382023
FlatwillowMONTANA352008
KayceeWYOMING342024
ShawmutMONTANA332024
Reed PointMONTANA332024
BillWYOMING292018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.