BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

European Starling in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-18%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
170Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

European Starling In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.00.0011
20272.80.0011
20282.60.0011
20292.40.0011
20302.10.0010

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording European Starling in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HannaUTAH1102024
KamasUTAH1022025
Cortez 2COLORADO962017
FruitaCOLORADO712007
ValenciaNEW-MEXICO611997
Castle DaleUTAH602007
FalfaCOLORADO572025
AlamosaCOLORADO572025
FarmingtonNEW-MEXICO561987
YampaCOLORADO422023
MoffatCOLORADO422025
AztecNEW-MEXICO421989
PaoniaCOLORADO402025
Animas 2COLORADO352025
FayetteUTAH352009
AnimasCOLORADO332004
Wellington 3UTAH322025
Stinking Lk.NEW-MEXICO301999
Blackhead PkCOLORADO262025
CapulinNEW-MEXICO251994
WarbonnetWYOMING242004
De BequeCOLORADO232025
DoloresCOLORADO221987
CebollaNEW-MEXICO222023
ColonaCOLORADO172014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.