BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

European Starling in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-22%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
170Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.10.0012
20262.90.0011
20272.70.0011
20282.50.0011
20292.30.0011

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording European Starling in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HannaUTAH1102024
Cortez 2COLORADO962017
KamasUTAH742024
FruitaCOLORADO712007
Wellington 3UTAH642024
ValenciaNEW-MEXICO611997
Castle DaleUTAH602007
FarmingtonNEW-MEXICO561987
FalfaCOLORADO502024
BeaverUTAH482024
YampaCOLORADO422023
AztecNEW-MEXICO421989
FayetteUTAH352009
AnimasCOLORADO332004
De BequeCOLORADO302024
Stinking Lk.NEW-MEXICO301999
CapulinNEW-MEXICO251994
HarmonyCOLORADO242024
WarbonnetWYOMING242004
DoloresCOLORADO221987
CebollaNEW-MEXICO222023
AlamosaCOLORADO192024
ParlinCOLORADO182023
Ojo SarcoNEW-MEXICO182024
ColonaCOLORADO172014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.