BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

European Starling in Sierra Nevada has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+4%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.20.007.4
20263.20.007.4
20273.20.007.4
20283.10.007.3
20293.10.007.3

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording European Starling in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA1002016
GeneseeCALIFORNIA462024
PaxtonCALIFORNIA372024
Silver CityCALIFORNIA182013
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA101975
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA101997
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA92024
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA82019
WawonaCALIFORNIA72024
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA62008
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA51988
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA42004
ChilcootCALIFORNIA42023
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA32012
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA32024
SattleyCALIFORNIA32024
RivertonCALIFORNIA32005
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA21984
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA22000
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA22024
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA22014
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA12012
DardanelleCALIFORNIA12003
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA12021
DownievilleCALIFORNIA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.