BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

European Starling in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-79%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
145Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.90.0014
20262.00.0013
20271.10.0012
20280.230.0011
20290.000.0011

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording European Starling in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New HartfordCONNECTICUT1131987
WatervilleVERMONT921980
BoundaryMAINE762016
Number FourNEW-YORK652016
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE602000
HighmarketNEW-YORK592024
WashburnMAINE562005
DannemoraNEW-YORK562006
CornvilleMAINE542024
BentonMAINE521980
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS501994
W RutlandVERMONT492024
WarrenMAINE481990
Ft FairfieldMAINE402005
FreedomMAINE392022
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE332024
LudlowMAINE321998
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE322024
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS312024
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE312024
Church HillMAINE302017
SciotaNEW-YORK302006
Moose RiverMAINE292008
HarmonyMAINE272024
St DavidMAINE272005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.