BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

European Starling in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

European Starling In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 93 in 2024 to a central estimate of 76 (95% range 46–105). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
46–10595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 93 in 2024 to a central estimate of 76 (95% range 46–105). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258050109
20267949108
20277848107
20287747106
20297646105

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording European Starling in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RomulusNEW-YORK5012000
GarrettsvileOHIO4671991
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA3832024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK2842024
MacdougallNEW-YORK2642024
WatertownNEW-YORK2622012
ArgyleNEW-YORK2122024
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA2102024
Valley CityOHIO2092024
LattasburgOHIO1882024
E YoungstownNEW-YORK1812023
HiramOHIO1772021
New SomersetOHIO1671993
Canadice LNEW-YORK1492024
ByronNEW-YORK1442024
NaplesNEW-YORK1432024
OrleansNEW-YORK1422024
BranchportNEW-YORK1342024
CayugaNEW-YORK1282024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA1222023
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA1152024
Ballston LkNEW-YORK1081995
West SenecaNEW-YORK1052004
N Victory 2NEW-YORK1042021
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK1022024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.