BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

European Starling in Boreal Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-68%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
115Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has fallen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 46% by 2029 — from 9.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 0.00–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 46% by 2029 — from 9.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 0.00–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.10.0021
20266.70.0021
20276.20.0020
20285.70.0020
20295.30.0019

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording European Starling in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maple GroveMICHIGAN3152024
Cedar RunMICHIGAN1671999
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN812004
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN751992
MayfieldMICHIGAN672022
CunardMICHIGAN622021
PickfordMICHIGAN502024
GreenbushMINNESOTA502023
Lake CityMICHIGAN482022
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN382019
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN362024
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN352024
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN321997
IronsMICHIGAN311989
CathroMICHIGAN302016
HerronMICHIGAN272016
Amnicon FallsWISCONSIN262024
SkeelsMICHIGAN222015
GilmanWISCONSIN222024
DebsMINNESOTA212024
BrainerdMINNESOTA172024
BayfieldWISCONSIN172024
IsabellaMICHIGAN152010
FredericMICHIGAN152003
HermanMICHIGAN142022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.