BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 320% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+320%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 320% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 89% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+89%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±150.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 89% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.20.0011
20265.20.0011
20275.20.0011
20285.20.0011
20295.20.0011

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Plantation KFLORIDA812004
Key LargoFLORIDA441991
GardnerFLORIDA361999
SandyFLORIDA332015
RedlandsFLORIDA242024
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA242004
Ridge HarborFLORIDA152024
Shawano 2FLORIDA142007
Boca RatonFLORIDA131994
DavieFLORIDA132017
KendallFLORIDA131991
St LucieFLORIDA122024
KenansvilleFLORIDA92024
Pennywash CrFLORIDA92024
Myakka HeadFLORIDA82011
CrewsvilleFLORIDA82024
ClewistonFLORIDA72022
Indiantown 2FLORIDA72023
ChildsFLORIDA62022
ScottsmoorFLORIDA62024
OcalaFLORIDA62011
MabelFLORIDA52011
Myakka Head 2FLORIDA52021
PalmdaleFLORIDA42023
Mabel 2FLORIDA42016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.