BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 884% on the route-weighted index since 1999.

+884%Since 1999TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 884% on the route-weighted index since 1999.

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.07–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.07–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19942029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.060.17
20260.120.060.18
20270.120.070.18
20280.130.070.18
20290.130.070.19

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OakmanGEORGIA82024
ClimerTENNESSEE82004
LakeviewALABAMA52024
DrummondALABAMA52022
SunnybrookKENTUCKY52022
BrooksvilleALABAMA32023
Amos MillGEORGIA32022
TradeALABAMA22024
Pine GroveALABAMA22023
GreensportALABAMA22024
Mt OliveALABAMA22002
St CollegePENNSYLVANIA22012
Sunny EveALABAMA12018
Smyer LakeALABAMA12016
MaytownALABAMA12019
GuntersvilleALABAMA12011
OdenvilleALABAMA12024
ChoccoloccoALABAMA12024
StevensonALABAMA12013
OneontaALABAMA12019
TalladegaALABAMA12024
CartersvilleGEORGIA12013
ShannonGEORGIA12019
Davis CrossroadsGEORGIA12021
WilliamsportMARYLAND12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.