BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 99× on the route-weighted index since 2005.

99×Since 2005TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 99× on the route-weighted index since 2005.

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 2.0–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 2.0–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20002029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.52.9
20262.31.63.0
20272.41.73.1
20282.61.93.2
20292.72.03.4

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SpartaNEBRASKA132021
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA122023
PantherIOWA112024
TildenNEBRASKA112024
Winside 2NEBRASKA102022
LennoxSOUTH-DAKOTA102024
HarlemMONTANA92021
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA82023
ChandlerMINNESOTA62023
WorthingtonMINNESOTA62024
TracyMINNESOTA62024
GlasgowMONTANA62024
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA62024
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA62024
ScrantonIOWA52024
MccallsburgIOWA52024
BurchinalIOWA52024
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA52024
PoncaNEBRASKA52024
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA52023
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA52024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA52024
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA52023
WashingtonIOWA42023
Redwood FallMINNESOTA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.