BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Wood-Pewee In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Eastern Wood-Pewee in Gulf Coastal Prairie has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-62%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Wood-Pewee has fallen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Wood-Pewee in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Wood-Pewee in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.030.000.18
20250.030.000.18
20260.020.000.17
20270.020.000.17
20280.020.000.17

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Eastern Wood-Pewee in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BaysideTEXAS52003
WinnieTEXAS41976
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA22017
StowellTEXAS21988
MamouLOUISIANA11973
HackberryLOUISIANA11969
GlencoeLOUISIANA12006
MauriceLOUISIANA11992
Vinton 2LOUISIANA12023
Hinkles FerTEXAS11990
DanburyTEXAS11998
KatyTEXAS12016
Port AcresTEXAS12002
Bayside 2TEXAS11999
Goliad PrairieTEXAS12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.