BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Wood-Pewee In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainAerial insectivores

Eastern Wood-Pewee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+88%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Wood-Pewee has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Wood-Pewee In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Wood-Pewee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 3.4–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Wood-Pewee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 3.4–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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20264.83.46.2
20274.83.46.3
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20294.93.46.3

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Eastern Wood-Pewee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA282023
W ShokanNEW-YORK202019
NaplesNEW-YORK192024
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA182024
RhinebeckNEW-YORK162024
CatskillsNEW-YORK152015
ArgyleNEW-YORK152024
PittsfieldOHIO152024
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK132024
LucerneOHIO132024
BranchportNEW-YORK112024
N Victory 2NEW-YORK112021
PulaskiNEW-YORK112024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK112024
HebronOHIO112024
Valley CityOHIO112024
DuanesburgNEW-YORK102024
CastileNEW-YORK102024
SalemNEW-YORK92024
LattasburgOHIO92024
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK82024
North EastonNEW-YORK82024
CloverPENNSYLVANIA82024
AusterlitzNEW-YORK72024
NashvilleNEW-YORK72018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.