BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Wood-Pewee In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainAerial insectivores

Eastern Wood-Pewee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+101%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Wood-Pewee has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Wood-Pewee In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Wood-Pewee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 6.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 3.5–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Wood-Pewee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 6.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 3.5–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.93.56.4
20275.03.56.5
20285.03.56.5
20295.03.56.5
20305.03.56.5

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Eastern Wood-Pewee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
W ShokanNEW-YORK202019
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA162025
CatskillsNEW-YORK152015
ArgyleNEW-YORK152024
North EastonNEW-YORK152025
PittsfieldOHIO152024
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK142025
LucerneOHIO142025
North PownalVERMONT142025
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA132025
PulaskiNEW-YORK122025
BranchportNEW-YORK112024
N Victory 2NEW-YORK112021
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA112025
OrleansNEW-YORK102025
CastileNEW-YORK102025
NaplesNEW-YORK102025
RhinebeckNEW-YORK92025
DuanesburgNEW-YORK92025
HamburgNEW-YORK92025
LattasburgOHIO92025
SheridanNEW-YORK82025
Valley CityOHIO82025
AusterlitzNEW-YORK72025
CayugaNEW-YORK72025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.