BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Whip-poor-will In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsAerial insectivores

Eastern Whip-poor-will in Appalachian Mountains has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-45%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
204Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Whip-poor-will in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Eastern Whip-poor-will In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.18 (95% range 0.04–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.18 (95% range 0.04–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.050.32
20260.180.050.32
20270.180.050.32
20280.180.050.32
20290.180.040.32

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Eastern Whip-poor-will in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BeattyvilleKENTUCKY141978
Table RockNORTH-CAROLINA72022
Tussey Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA62024
SomersNEW-YORK51975
Piney GroveMARYLAND42024
BaxterGEORGIA32017
CarterKENTUCKY32019
Green RidgeMARYLAND32024
DresdenOHIO31983
Tar HollowOHIO32024
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA31989
Mill RunPENNSYLVANIA31981
LandrumSOUTH-CAROLINA31992
McfarlandTENNESSEE31993
CornponeTENNESSEE32023
Natural BridVIRGINIA32024
ArleeWEST-VIRGINIA31976
Pine GroveALABAMA22021
GreensportALABAMA22024
MentoneALABAMA22003
OdenvilleALABAMA22011
KehoeKENTUCKY21983
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY21997
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY21995
Mt NeboMARYLAND21970

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.