BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Whip-poor-will In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsAerial insectivores

Eastern Whip-poor-will in Appalachian Mountains has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
204Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Whip-poor-will has fallen sharply in Appalachian Mountains: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Whip-poor-will In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.04–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.04–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.180.050.32
20270.180.050.32
20280.180.040.32
20290.180.040.31
20300.180.040.31

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Eastern Whip-poor-will in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BeattyvilleKENTUCKY141978
Table RockNORTH-CAROLINA72022
SomersNEW-YORK51975
Tussey Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA42025
BaxterGEORGIA32017
CarterKENTUCKY32019
Piney GroveMARYLAND32025
DresdenOHIO31983
RayOHIO32025
Tar HollowOHIO32024
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA31989
MunsonPENNSYLVANIA32025
Mill RunPENNSYLVANIA31981
LandrumSOUTH-CAROLINA31992
McfarlandTENNESSEE31993
CornponeTENNESSEE32023
Natural BridVIRGINIA32025
ArleeWEST-VIRGINIA31976
Pine GroveALABAMA22025
MentoneALABAMA22003
OdenvilleALABAMA22011
KehoeKENTUCKY21983
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY21997
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY21995
Mt NeboMARYLAND21970

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.