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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Whip-poor-will In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyAerial insectivores

Eastern Whip-poor-will in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-77%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Whip-poor-will has collapsed in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Eastern Whip-poor-will In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2017, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±441.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2017TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2017 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±441.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2017, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±441.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682017
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20130.080.000.38
20140.080.000.37
20150.070.000.37
20160.070.000.36
20170.070.000.36

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Eastern Whip-poor-will in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MaynardARKANSAS22011
BardwellKENTUCKY22000
SaffellARKANSAS12005
DeventerMISSOURI11984
PawpawTENNESSEE12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.