BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Whip-poor-will In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Eastern Whip-poor-will in Boreal Hardwood Transition has risen sharply: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Whip-poor-will has risen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Whip-poor-will In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.000.29
20270.120.000.29
20280.120.000.29
20290.110.000.29
20300.110.000.28

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Eastern Whip-poor-will in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RacoMICHIGAN42025
Mille LacsMINNESOTA41998
ConoverWISCONSIN32025
CunardMICHIGAN22021
IsabellaMICHIGAN21998
Red OakMICHIGAN22011
CathroMICHIGAN21980
SidnawMICHIGAN22025
Grand ViewWISCONSIN22011
Union TwpWISCONSIN22021
CrandonWISCONSIN21993
MareniscoMICHIGAN12000
Ned LakeMICHIGAN12022
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN12014
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN12024
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN12023
WilsonMICHIGAN12002
CreightonMICHIGAN12012
MuskallongeMICHIGAN12017
TahquamenonMICHIGAN11978
GilchristMICHIGAN12021
Lake CityMICHIGAN11996
IronsMICHIGAN11989
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN12025
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN11980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.