BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Meadowlark In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Gulf Coastal Prairie has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-69%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has fallen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Meadowlark In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026180.0041
2027170.0040
2028160.0039
2029150.0038
2030130.0036

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA982025
VanderbiltTEXAS851976
CreoleLOUISIANA811987
WinnieTEXAS722025
MamouLOUISIANA701982
Goliad PrairieTEXAS632016
KaplanLOUISIANA532023
StowellTEXAS512025
EstherLOUISIANA502025
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS502025
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA481982
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA472011
Oyster LakeTEXAS452025
Vinton 2LOUISIANA382025
KatyTEXAS382025
Port AcresTEXAS382025
Loyola BeachTEXAS352009
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA322019
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA312011
Rock IslandTEXAS302025
MauriceLOUISIANA282024
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA282025
WoodlawnLOUISIANA282021
Padre Island PaisTEXAS262015
Bayside 3TEXAS232025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.