BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Meadowlark In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Gulf Coastal Prairie has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-69%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has fallen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Meadowlark In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025180.0041
2026170.0040
2027160.0039
2028150.0038
2029130.0036

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
VanderbiltTEXAS851976
CreoleLOUISIANA811987
MamouLOUISIANA701982
Oyster LakeTEXAS702024
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS662024
Goliad PrairieTEXAS632016
WinnieTEXAS582024
KaplanLOUISIANA532023
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA481982
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA472011
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA442024
EstherLOUISIANA372024
Rock IslandTEXAS352024
Loyola BeachTEXAS352009
Port AcresTEXAS352024
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA322024
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA322019
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA312011
ChinquapinTEXAS312024
KatyTEXAS302024
MauriceLOUISIANA282024
WoodlawnLOUISIANA282021
Vinton 2LOUISIANA272024
Padre Island PaisTEXAS262015
Moon LakeTEXAS212011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.