BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Meadowlark In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Meadowlark In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±117.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.0016
20270.000.0016
20280.000.0016
20290.000.0016
20300.000.0016

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PalmdaleFLORIDA1282023
Pennywash CrFLORIDA1092024
CrewsvilleFLORIDA702025
SalvistaFLORIDA651979
St LucieFLORIDA632025
Devils GardnFLORIDA632025
BrowardFLORIDA561973
GardnerFLORIDA521999
KenansvilleFLORIDA502025
WebbFLORIDA462025
AlturasFLORIDA431986
ClewistonFLORIDA362023
SandyFLORIDA332015
RomeoFLORIDA312025
Indiantown 2FLORIDA302025
Ridge HarborFLORIDA282025
Dale MabryFLORIDA271988
San AntonioFLORIDA272025
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA272025
KendallFLORIDA261991
AlvaFLORIDA232023
Lake BuffumFLORIDA232024
Sandy 2FLORIDA232025
MabelFLORIDA222011
Babcock RnchFLORIDA221990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.