BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Meadowlark In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
277Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has fallen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Meadowlark In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 3.3–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 3.3–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025155.325
2026154.825
2027144.324
2028143.824
2029133.323

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ThrallKANSAS1411970
Sni MillsMISSOURI1311990
MadisonMISSOURI1092024
WelchOKLAHOMA1012024
ForakerOKLAHOMA962024
LincolnvilleKANSAS922024
WainwrightOKLAHOMA802013
McfallMISSOURI712024
MelroseILLINOIS691999
LucerneMISSOURI692021
StetMISSOURI621995
MoreheadKANSAS592024
GalesburgKANSAS572024
TrentonMISSOURI572024
ReeceKANSAS532024
Trading PostKANSAS532024
EmdenMISSOURI502024
EllinorKANSAS492024
WrefordKANSAS472024
Le LoupKANSAS462021
PeoriaOKLAHOMA462023
HamiltonMISSOURI441985
OhioMISSOURI432024
RensselaerMISSOURI422024
New HamptonMISSOURI422024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.