BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Meadowlark In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Oaks and Prairies has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-77%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has collapsed in Oaks and Prairies: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Meadowlark In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±102.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0039
20270.000.0039
20280.000.0039
20290.000.0039
20300.000.0039

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E GeorgetownTEXAS1091979
Mount ZionTEXAS832025
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA732025
LocoOKLAHOMA721985
Wolfe CityTEXAS661987
ThorntonTEXAS581984
HenriettaTEXAS552022
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA541977
RhomeTEXAS462025
BeggsOKLAHOMA442023
MuldoonTEXAS432025
DuncanOKLAHOMA422025
OakwoodTEXAS421995
HobsonTEXAS402025
Three RiversTEXAS372025
SkiatookOKLAHOMA322019
GainesvilleTEXAS322025
GrafordTEXAS302025
DikeTEXAS302025
Gambill Ref.TEXAS292025
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA282025
Oak GroveTEXAS261999
LydiaTEXAS232025
DuranTEXAS201999
HearneTEXAS192025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.