BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dusky Grouse In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Dusky Grouse in Northern Rockies has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+27%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dusky Grouse in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Grouse in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Grouse in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.10
20260.050.000.10
20270.050.000.10
20280.050.000.10
20290.050.000.10

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Dusky Grouse in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SaveryWYOMING71989
Saleratus CrUTAH42005
CloverlandWASHINGTON42017
Fish CreekMONTANA32021
Logan PassMONTANA22024
Bald MtnWYOMING22002
AnchorWYOMING21993
Fiddler LkWYOMING22010
Lolo PassIDAHO12004
CascadeIDAHO11974
ChallisIDAHO12001
Salmon RiverIDAHO12004
CobaltIDAHO12024
Yellow PineIDAHO11992
St RegisMONTANA12007
WoodmanMONTANA12018
ClintonMONTANA11999
EllistonMONTANA12003
SulaMONTANA12024
ChestnutMONTANA12000
NinemileMONTANA12008
Painted RockMONTANA11998
Skalkho-RyeMONTANA12022
East Glacier ParkMONTANA12018
VictorMONTANA12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.