BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Dusky Flycatcher In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in Great Basin has surged: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+109%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dusky Flycatcher has surged in Great Basin: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Dusky Flycatcher In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.9 (95% range 1.8–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.9 (95% range 1.8–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.81.73.9
20272.81.83.9
20282.91.83.9
20292.91.84.0
20302.91.84.0

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Davis LakeOREGON392025
HackamoreCALIFORNIA372010
Bald Mtn.OREGON342025
PauninaOREGON342025
E. Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON312025
SistersOREGON262025
Barnes ValOREGON191987
Magic MtnIDAHO182025
PaisleyOREGON182025
LakeviewOREGON172025
BlyOREGON162001
MacdoelCALIFORNIA152019
Camp ShermanOREGON141996
RonaldWASHINGTON122025
Blewett PassWASHINGTON122025
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON122025
TwispWASHINGTON112021
EllensburgWASHINGTON112025
ArdenvoirWASHINGTON101987
TriangleIDAHO92021
Picture FlatOREGON92025
SquirrelIDAHO82025
BuchananOREGON82025
Lapham Res.OREGON82025
BartleCALIFORNIA72021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.