BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dusky Flycatcher In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in Great Basin has surged: up 102% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+102%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dusky Flycatcher has surged in Great Basin: up 102% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Dusky Flycatcher In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.9 (95% range 1.8–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.9 (95% range 1.8–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.81.73.9
20262.81.73.9
20272.81.73.9
20282.91.84.0
20292.91.84.0

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PauninaOREGON482024
Davis LakeOREGON472024
Bald Mtn.OREGON442024
Blewett PassWASHINGTON392024
HackamoreCALIFORNIA372010
PaisleyOREGON272024
E. Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON232024
Barnes ValOREGON191987
SistersOREGON192024
Picture FlatOREGON182024
LakeviewOREGON182024
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON172024
BlyOREGON162001
MacdoelCALIFORNIA152019
Fish LakeOREGON152024
Camp ShermanOREGON141996
Badger CreekOREGON142024
EllensburgWASHINGTON132024
Humboldt Nf 2NEVADA112024
Wizard FallsOREGON112024
TwispWASHINGTON112021
ArdenvoirWASHINGTON101987
TriangleIDAHO92021
BartleCALIFORNIA72021
SquirrelIDAHO72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.