BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Northern Pacific Rainforest has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-5%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
119Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.18–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.51Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–0.8395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.18–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.510.190.84
20260.510.190.84
20270.510.190.83
20280.510.180.83
20290.510.180.83

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Offield MtnCALIFORNIA52013
Redwood N.P.CALIFORNIA52010
SvensenOREGON51992
GreenOREGON52023
SalemOREGON52024
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON52024
Thorne BayALASKA41991
WedderburnOREGON42024
CecilvilleCALIFORNIA32010
Days CreekOREGON32024
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON32024
CoquilleOREGON32022
McminnvilleOREGON32024
LoraneOREGON32023
CamasWASHINGTON32009
South ElmaWASHINGTON32024
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON32022
DeceptionWASHINGTON32018
HopeALASKA22023
Thorne Bay 2ALASKA22017
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA22019
HullvilleCALIFORNIA22013
Fish RockCALIFORNIA22013
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA22024
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA22011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.