BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+170%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.002.5
20261.20.002.5
20271.20.002.5
20281.20.002.5
20291.20.002.6

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JuniorLOUISIANA111991
LafitteLOUISIANA101991
Forked IslandLOUISIANA82024
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA82011
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA72024
Vinton 2LOUISIANA72024
GlencoeLOUISIANA42017
EstherLOUISIANA42024
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA42011
Port AcresTEXAS42024
MamouLOUISIANA21968
KaplanLOUISIANA22022
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA22019
VintonLOUISIANA22009
WoodlawnLOUISIANA22021
WinnieTEXAS22023
Rock IslandTEXAS22014
Moon Lake 2TEXAS22024
HackberryLOUISIANA12011
MauriceLOUISIANA12024
RichardLOUISIANA12024
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA12024
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA12008
Hinkles FerTEXAS12024
StowellTEXAS12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.