BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Coastal California has edged up: up 23% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+23%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.55 (95% range 0.35–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.55Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.35–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.55 (95% range 0.35–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.540.330.75
20270.540.340.75
20280.550.340.75
20290.550.340.76
20300.550.350.76

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glen EllenCALIFORNIA52002
Harbor Lake 2CALIFORNIA52022
OnoCALIFORNIA42012
Cleveland NfCALIFORNIA41994
PescaderoCALIFORNIA42025
FairfaxCALIFORNIA32024
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA31981
Lake CachumaCALIFORNIA31997
JacksonCALIFORNIA31992
LockwoodCALIFORNIA32025
Glen Ellen 2CALIFORNIA32022
San Benito Mtn.CALIFORNIA32005
PenningtonCALIFORNIA22025
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA21981
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA21992
OrlandCALIFORNIA22009
TujungaCALIFORNIA22013
Mt LagunaCALIFORNIA21971
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA22015
Elizabeth LkCALIFORNIA22015
GlennCALIFORNIA21988
Gold HillCALIFORNIA22025
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA22023
CoyoteCALIFORNIA22025
GreenfieldCALIFORNIA22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.