BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Piedmont has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+69%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
172Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has risen sharply in Piedmont: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.5 (95% range 3.5–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.5 (95% range 3.5–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.43.45.5
20264.53.45.5
20274.53.45.5
20284.53.55.6
20294.53.55.6

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OlneyMARYLAND232024
Hollonville 2GEORGIA172022
EarltonMARYLAND162024
WheatonMARYLAND152024
IjamsvilleMARYLAND142024
JulietteGEORGIA132024
DurhamNORTH-CAROLINA132024
Doe RunPENNSYLVANIA132024
EmmitsburgMARYLAND112024
MadonnaMARYLAND112022
Little MtnSOUTH-CAROLINA111988
RutledgeGEORGIA102024
Ball GroundGEORGIA102021
WoodstockGEORGIA102021
Silver SpgMARYLAND101989
WilgroveNORTH-CAROLINA102024
HiramGEORGIA92018
Rock BranchGEORGIA92024
NorwoodMARYLAND92012
EkloMARYLAND92018
ChathamPENNSYLVANIA92024
CovesvilleVIRGINIA92024
Liberty CityALABAMA82011
MaxeysGEORGIA82024
Kite LakeGEORGIA82023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.