BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+99%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
345Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.9 (95% range 3.2–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.9 (95% range 3.2–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.83.14.6
20263.93.14.6
20273.93.14.7
20283.93.24.7
20293.93.24.7

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big SandyTENNESSEE182024
HumboldtTENNESSEE182024
OsceolaFLORIDA172024
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA172024
BranchvilleVIRGINIA172024
CallahanFLORIDA152024
Everett CityGEORGIA132019
Trace LormanMISSISSIPPI132019
BickhamLOUISIANA122024
NewsomsVIRGINIA122024
GreensboroALABAMA112024
Doctors Inlet 2FLORIDA112017
Sanderson 2FLORIDA112024
TupeloMISSISSIPPI112022
StarMISSISSIPPI112024
WalterboroSOUTH-CAROLINA112017
MansfieldTENNESSEE112024
Dowling ParkFLORIDA102023
UnionGEORGIA102023
Laurel HillFLORIDA92024
DouglasGEORGIA91984
DickeyGEORGIA92018
CockrumMISSISSIPPI92024
Trace SouthMISSISSIPPI92019
BeargrassNORTH-CAROLINA91981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.