BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+99%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
345Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.9 (95% range 3.2–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.9 (95% range 3.2–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.83.14.6
20263.93.14.6
20273.93.14.7
20283.93.24.7
20293.93.24.7

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big SandyTENNESSEE182024
HumboldtTENNESSEE182024
OsceolaFLORIDA172024
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA172024
BranchvilleVIRGINIA172024
CallahanFLORIDA152024
Everett CityGEORGIA132019
Trace LormanMISSISSIPPI132019
BickhamLOUISIANA122024
NewsomsVIRGINIA122024
GreensboroALABAMA112024
Doctors Inlet 2FLORIDA112017
Sanderson 2FLORIDA112024
TupeloMISSISSIPPI112022
StarMISSISSIPPI112024
WalterboroSOUTH-CAROLINA112017
MansfieldTENNESSEE112024
Dowling ParkFLORIDA102023
UnionGEORGIA102023
Laurel HillFLORIDA92024
DouglasGEORGIA91984
DickeyGEORGIA92018
CockrumMISSISSIPPI92024
Trace SouthMISSISSIPPI92019
BeargrassNORTH-CAROLINA91981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.