BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 222% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+222%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 222% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 3.5–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 3.5–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.83.36.3
20264.83.36.3
20274.93.46.4
20284.93.46.5
20295.03.56.5

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Baton RougeLOUISIANA262024
RoselandLOUISIANA252024
KraemerLOUISIANA192024
CarlisleLOUISIANA151988
River RoadLOUISIANA142024
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY132021
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI112021
ShawLOUISIANA102024
MayflowerLOUISIANA102024
South BendARKANSAS92023
RamahLOUISIANA92024
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI92024
MaynardARKANSAS82024
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA82024
Morgan CityLOUISIANA71986
RayvilleLOUISIANA72008
BrousvilleLOUISIANA72024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA72024
Rayville 2LOUISIANA72024
EnglandARKANSAS62024
KeystoneLOUISIANA62013
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI62024
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI62022
HarrisburgARKANSAS42019
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA42022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.