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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+109%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Downy Woodpecker In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.5–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.5–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.81.54.2
20262.81.54.2
20272.81.54.2
20282.91.54.2
20292.91.54.2

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LockesburgARKANSAS122019
NanceARKANSAS112024
Derry 2LOUISIANA102024
WechesTEXAS102024
StarkARKANSAS92024
GoodwillLOUISIANA92024
SmyrnaTEXAS92010
Mount UnionLOUISIANA72024
MatoyOKLAHOMA72000
Union HillTEXAS72024
PrincetonARKANSAS62021
FillmoreLOUISIANA61989
TroutLOUISIANA62024
ManyLOUISIANA61992
Fishville 2LOUISIANA62024
Burr FerryLOUISIANA62024
PhillipsOKLAHOMA62008
IndianolaOKLAHOMA62024
Powell Park 2TEXAS62024
BlakelyARKANSAS51999
CartervilleLOUISIANA51992
WomackLOUISIANA52023
Ivan 2LOUISIANA52016
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA52024
Town BluffTEXAS52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.