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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+114%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Downy Woodpecker In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.9 (95% range 1.6–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.9 (95% range 1.6–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.91.54.2
20272.91.54.2
20282.91.54.2
20292.91.64.2
20302.91.64.2

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LockesburgARKANSAS122019
Burr FerryLOUISIANA92025
SmyrnaTEXAS92010
Fishville 2LOUISIANA82025
PhillipsOKLAHOMA82025
DibollTEXAS82025
NanceARKANSAS72025
Union HillTEXAS72024
PrincetonARKANSAS62021
FillmoreLOUISIANA61989
ManyLOUISIANA61992
NatchezLOUISIANA62025
Ivan 2LOUISIANA62025
IndianolaOKLAHOMA62025
MatoyOKLAHOMA62025
CaledoniaTEXAS62025
AthensTEXAS62025
Liberty HillTEXAS62025
Easton 2TEXAS62025
BlakelyARKANSAS51999
CartervilleLOUISIANA51992
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA52024
MortonTEXAS52024
PoyenARKANSAS42007
Coal HillARKANSAS42023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.