BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Central Hardwoods has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-5%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
165Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.9–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.9–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.21.94.5
20263.21.94.5
20273.21.94.5
20283.21.94.5
20293.21.94.5

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FarwellARKANSAS152018
BelmontINDIANA142024
CollinwoodTENNESSEE132024
Indian Mound 2TENNESSEE122023
BremenILLINOIS112024
Hodgenville 2KENTUCKY112023
SyracuseMISSOURI102024
Osage BeachMISSOURI102024
MincyMISSOURI102024
PulaskiILLINOIS92024
RoyaltonILLINOIS92024
AzaliaINDIANA92024
HegiraKENTUCKY92024
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY92023
Doe RunMISSOURI92024
RomeOHIO92024
Pond CreekTENNESSEE92024
DelwoodILLINOIS82024
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS82023
MillersburgINDIANA82024
Peace ValleyMISSOURI82024
Rueter 2MISSOURI82024
HillsboroALABAMA71996
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA72010
TrianaALABAMA72012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.