BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Shortgrass Prairie has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-35%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.10
20260.040.000.10
20270.040.000.10
20280.040.000.10
20290.040.000.10

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO122011
CrawfordNEBRASKA42024
Murray LakeNEBRASKA32005
FlemingCOLORADO22006
PaxtonNEBRASKA22012
MiamiTEXAS22009
KiowaCOLORADO12009
AbarrCOLORADO11993
Adams Co.COLORADO12019
Kiowa 2COLORADO12019
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO11994
NunnCOLORADO12004
Fort MorganCOLORADO11999
JulesburgCOLORADO12018
BennettCOLORADO12012
ElbertCOLORADO12021
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO12021
ArsenalCOLORADO12011
Arsenal 2COLORADO12022
DaltonNEBRASKA12015
AgateNEBRASKA11988
KimballNEBRASKA11978
Agate 2NEBRASKA12023
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA12021
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.