BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Badlands and Prairies has risen sharply: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+65%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has risen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Downy Woodpecker In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±111.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.000.26
20270.110.000.26
20280.110.000.26
20290.110.000.26
20300.110.000.26

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA42014
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA42006
St XavierMONTANA32010
PowdervilleMONTANA31986
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA32004
BrusettMONTANA22023
ForsythMONTANA22016
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA22021
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA22011
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA21995
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA22008
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA22002
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA22025
Moskee 2WYOMING22017
Moskee 3WYOMING22025
HighwoodMONTANA12023
ShawmutMONTANA11994
FlatwillowMONTANA11989
Reed PointMONTANA12024
BrandenbergMONTANA12014
Miles CityMONTANA12018
Cabin CreekMONTANA12025
Chuffey SpringMONTANA12019
Bull Mtn.MONTANA12015
CrookstonNEBRASKA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.