BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 88% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+88%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 88% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Downy Woodpecker In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.06–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.06–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.050.23
20260.140.050.23
20270.140.050.23
20280.140.050.23
20290.140.060.23

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fox ParkWYOMING72019
La SalUTAH52000
Haycamp MesaCOLORADO42022
Cheesman LkCOLORADO32024
BeckUTAH31986
Fish Lake NfUTAH32023
ColonaCOLORADO21998
DoloresCOLORADO21969
Colona 2COLORADO22017
Blackhead PkCOLORADO22021
FlattopsCOLORADO22015
PinonCOLORADO22024
Comanche PkCOLORADO22011
Mcphee Res.COLORADO22015
South ForkCOLORADO22024
RadiumCOLORADO22011
Navajo LakeUTAH22024
Skyline DrivUTAH22006
RichfieldUTAH22007
Beck 2UTAH22009
Heber Mtn.UTAH22014
Dry ParkARIZONA12021
TsaileARIZONA11993
YampaCOLORADO12023
HarmonyCOLORADO12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.