BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Sierra Nevada has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-5%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 72% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 72% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.310.000.76
20260.300.000.76
20270.300.000.76
20280.300.000.76
20290.300.000.76

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeneseeCALIFORNIA72024
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA72024
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA32024
WestvilleCALIFORNIA22024
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA21974
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA21989
WawonaCALIFORNIA22015
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA11988
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA12018
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA12011
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA12024
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA11985
Silver CityCALIFORNIA12011
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA12010
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA12023
SattleyCALIFORNIA12004
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA11983
DownievilleCALIFORNIA12022
RivertonCALIFORNIA12023
Chaos CraterCALIFORNIA12019
PaxtonCALIFORNIA12022
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA12023
Forest HillCALIFORNIA12019
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA12007
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.