BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+84%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.8–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.8–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.52.74.4
20263.62.74.4
20273.62.74.4
20283.62.84.5
20293.62.84.5

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
North EastonNEW-YORK112024
Ballston LkNEW-YORK101995
PittsfieldOHIO102024
HamburgNEW-YORK82024
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK82024
WaylandOHIO82017
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK72024
CastileNEW-YORK72024
AusterlitzNEW-YORK62023
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK62024
ParishvilleNEW-YORK62024
CrescentNEW-YORK62024
HinesburgVERMONT61994
W ShokanNEW-YORK52019
TrumansburgNEW-YORK52024
PenfieldNEW-YORK52024
SalemNEW-YORK52024
N VictoryNEW-YORK51972
LucerneOHIO52024
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA52023
RomulusNEW-YORK41997
N Victory 2NEW-YORK42021
PulaskiNEW-YORK42024
N WilmurtNEW-YORK41998
NaplesNEW-YORK42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.