BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+84%Since 1968
86Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.8–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029
3.6Projected 2029 index
2.8–4.595% range
±12.3%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.52.74.4
20263.62.74.4
20273.62.74.4
20283.62.84.5
20293.62.84.5

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
North EastonNEW-YORK112024
Ballston LkNEW-YORK101995
PittsfieldOHIO102024
HamburgNEW-YORK82024
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK82024
WaylandOHIO82017
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK72024
CastileNEW-YORK72024
AusterlitzNEW-YORK62023
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK62024
ParishvilleNEW-YORK62024
CrescentNEW-YORK62024
HinesburgVERMONT61994
W ShokanNEW-YORK52019
TrumansburgNEW-YORK52024
PenfieldNEW-YORK52024
SalemNEW-YORK52024
N VictoryNEW-YORK51972
LucerneOHIO52024
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA52023
RomulusNEW-YORK41997
N Victory 2NEW-YORK42021
PulaskiNEW-YORK42024
N WilmurtNEW-YORK41998
NaplesNEW-YORK42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.