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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+8%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 0.84 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.38–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.38–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 0.84 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.38–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.401.8
20271.10.401.8
20281.10.391.8
20291.10.391.8
20301.10.381.8

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle RiverWISCONSIN92024
CunardMICHIGAN72021
Land O LakesWISCONSIN72016
Frederic 2MICHIGAN62017
BagleyMINNESOTA62006
Iron RiverWISCONSIN62009
CavourWISCONSIN52025
HermanMICHIGAN42015
Bear LakeMICHIGAN42025
CromwellMINNESOTA42025
Cass LakeMINNESOTA42006
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN31997
SkeelsMICHIGAN32015
HerronMICHIGAN32016
Imp LakeMICHIGAN32012
Mille LacsMINNESOTA32024
HovlandMINNESOTA32025
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA32022
BemidjiMINNESOTA31980
BrainerdMINNESOTA32014
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA32022
BabbittMINNESOTA32025
Ned LakeMICHIGAN22025
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN22024
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.