BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Double-crested Cormorant In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasWetland birds

Double-crested Cormorant in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-57%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Double-crested Cormorant has fallen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Double-crested Cormorant In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Double-crested Cormorant in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 282% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±304.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+282%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±304.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Double-crested Cormorant in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 282% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±304.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.220.000.56
20270.220.000.56
20280.220.000.57
20290.230.000.57
20300.230.000.57

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Double-crested Cormorant in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chandler 2TEXAS402018
HopeARKANSAS112009
ZwolleLOUISIANA42023
SmyrnaTEXAS42005
CrossroadsTEXAS32025
AthensTEXAS32011
Locust BayouARKANSAS12013
LongstreetLOUISIANA11990
HaughtonLOUISIANA12001
Big CedarOKLAHOMA11983
BlancoOKLAHOMA11993
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA12017
Town BluffTEXAS11998
New WaverlyTEXAS12019
ChandlerTEXAS12001
Alexander StTEXAS12017
WechesTEXAS12024
Easton 2TEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.