BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Curve-billed Thrasher In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertArid-land birds

Curve-billed Thrasher in Chihuahuan Desert has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+11%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Curve-billed Thrasher in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Curve-billed Thrasher In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Curve-billed Thrasher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 47% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Curve-billed Thrasher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 47% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.002.7
20271.30.002.7
20281.20.002.7
20291.20.002.7
20301.20.002.7

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Curve-billed Thrasher in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PumpvilleTEXAS132025
Bear MtnTEXAS112025
Ft. DavisTEXAS112025
Devils R CynTEXAS92025
ComstockTEXAS82017
GirvinTEXAS82024
CornudasTEXAS62018
JornadaNEW-MEXICO42025
ToyahvaleTEXAS42025
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO32019
ValentineTEXAS31987
LangtryTEXAS31997
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS32009
MarfaTEXAS32025
Van HornTEXAS32025
DemingNEW-MEXICO21971
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO22025
QueenNEW-MEXICO22015
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO22025
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO22021
LongfellowTEXAS22025
Casa PiedraTEXAS22025
PresidioTEXAS22025
Ft. StocktonTEXAS22025
Coyanda DrawTEXAS22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.