BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Curve-billed Thrasher In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauArid-land birds

Curve-billed Thrasher in Edwards Plateau has edged up: up 12% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+12%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Curve-billed Thrasher in Edwards Plateau. See the full index history below.

Curve-billed Thrasher In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Curve-billed Thrasher in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 282% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+282%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±114.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Curve-billed Thrasher in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 282% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.240.000.49
20270.240.000.50
20280.240.000.50
20290.240.000.50
20300.240.000.50

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Curve-billed Thrasher in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San SabaTEXAS41994
Valley SpgsTEXAS22016
UtopiaTEXAS12024
HarperTEXAS12025
KempnerTEXAS11997
AdamsvilleTEXAS12008
Pidcoke 2TEXAS12023
LeakeyTEXAS12024
MontellTEXAS12023
RockspringTEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.