BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Curve-billed Thrasher In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauArid-land birds

Curve-billed Thrasher in Edwards Plateau has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+33%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Curve-billed Thrasher in Edwards Plateau. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Curve-billed Thrasher in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Curve-billed Thrasher in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.250.000.51
20260.250.000.51
20270.260.000.51
20280.260.000.51
20290.260.000.51

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Curve-billed Thrasher in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San SabaTEXAS41994
Valley SpgsTEXAS22016
UtopiaTEXAS12024
HarperTEXAS12024
KempnerTEXAS11997
AdamsvilleTEXAS12008
Pidcoke 2TEXAS12023
LeakeyTEXAS12024
MontellTEXAS12023
RockspringTEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.