BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Crissal Thrasher In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Crissal Thrasher in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+122%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Crissal Thrasher has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Crissal Thrasher In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Crissal Thrasher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Crissal Thrasher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.250.000.67
20260.240.000.67
20270.240.000.67
20280.240.000.66
20290.240.000.66

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Crissal Thrasher in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EngleNEW-MEXICO71981
JornadaNEW-MEXICO42018
RodeoNEW-MEXICO42024
MesillaNEW-MEXICO32000
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO32024
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO32018
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO22023
Black GapTEXAS22014
OzonaTEXAS21998
CastolonTEXAS22018
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS22009
Salt FlatTEXAS22003
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS22022
Chisos BasinTEXAS22024
GageNEW-MEXICO12022
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO11990
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO12019
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO12023
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12024
PinonNEW-MEXICO12009
QueenNEW-MEXICO12021
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO12004
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO12023
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO12022
Hot SpringsTEXAS12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.