BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Crissal Thrasher In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Crissal Thrasher in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+122%Since 1974
33Routes In Region
50Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Crissal Thrasher has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Crissal Thrasher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029
0.24Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.6695% range
±21.7%Backtest error
19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.250.000.67
20260.240.000.67
20270.240.000.67
20280.240.000.66
20290.240.000.66

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Crissal Thrasher in Chihuahuan Desert.
EngleNEW-MEXICO71981
JornadaNEW-MEXICO42018
RodeoNEW-MEXICO42024
MesillaNEW-MEXICO32000
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO32024
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO32018
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO22023
Black GapTEXAS22014
OzonaTEXAS21998
CastolonTEXAS22018
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS22009
Salt FlatTEXAS22003
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS22022
Chisos BasinTEXAS22024
GageNEW-MEXICO12022
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO11990
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO12019
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO12023
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12024
PinonNEW-MEXICO12009
QueenNEW-MEXICO12021
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO12004
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO12023
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO12022
Hot SpringsTEXAS12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.