BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Crissal Thrasher In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertArid-land birds

Crissal Thrasher in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+107%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Crissal Thrasher has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 106% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Crissal Thrasher In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Crissal Thrasher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Crissal Thrasher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.250.000.67
20270.240.000.67
20280.240.000.67
20290.240.000.66
20300.240.000.66

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Crissal Thrasher in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EngleNEW-MEXICO71981
JornadaNEW-MEXICO42018
RodeoNEW-MEXICO42024
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO32025
MesillaNEW-MEXICO32000
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO32018
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO22023
OzonaTEXAS21998
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS22009
Salt FlatTEXAS22003
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS22022
Chisos BasinTEXAS22024
GageNEW-MEXICO12022
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO11990
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO12019
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12024
PinonNEW-MEXICO12009
QueenNEW-MEXICO12021
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO12004
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO12023
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO12022
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO12025
Hot SpringsTEXAS12025
Black GapTEXAS12025
Delaware CrkTEXAS11987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.